Do we really need nuclear power if we've got wind farms?

Motto (a Chinese proverb):

Sow rice if you think one year ahead
Plant trees if you think ten years ahead
But teach people if you think a hundread years ahead

Development of power generation technologies may be predicted based on analysis of past data and forecasted long-term trends concerning energy demand, global population, raw-material consumption, various nations future GNP levels, and climate changes. The proposed global coefficients help to evaluate the situation. Selected countries will be discussed as an illustration. Basic features of conventional, wind and nuclear power generation technologies will be compared.   

Status of R&D works and current advancement of selected types of 4^th generation nuclear reactors (HTGR, FBR, MSR) will be presented using some IAEA (Vienna) materials. Barriers that prevent realization of large reactor facilities will be identified. 

The DESAE (Dynamics of Energy Systems of Atomic Energy) programme on the GAINS (INPRO) example and three scenarios of comprehensive development of nuclear power industries in 21^st century in 7 distinguished regions of the world will be presented.  

In author's opinion the conclusions are radical and some equally radical recommendations are necessary to avoid crisis. The recommendations should be a starting point to discussions of a rational power strategy.  

All interested may take NCBJ bus from Warsaw to Świerk. The bus will leave at 10.15 from entrance gate to the Hoża 69 premises in Warsaw.

Professor Ludwik Dobrzyński